AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are mostly 1-2 cents higher so far on Tuesday. Monday afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report showed corn harvest 90% completed. Last year at this time showed 6 of the 18 major production states 100% harvested and 5 others with 97% complete. As of Sunday, the USDA showed only a total of 3 states at 97% or more with TN and NC 100% complete This is not a market factor, with overall stocks levels high. As of Monday night, the average cash corn price in the US was $3.08 1/4 just 2 cents below last year with slower exports and larger carryover. The national basis was at -36 3/4 cents, 2 3/4 stronger than a year ago.

Dec 17 Corn is at $3.44, down 1 cent,

Mar 18 Corn is at $3.55, down 1 1/2 cents,

May 18 Corn is at $3.63 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents

Jul 18 Corn is at $3.71, down 1 1/2 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures are steady to fractionally mixed at midday. December meal is down 20 cents/ton, with nearby bean oil 11 points higher. The USDA announced a private export sale of 130,000 MT of Soybeans to China for 17/18 delivery. The Crop Progress report showed the Soybean harvest advancing just 3% from last week at 96% complete. There are 7 states that were reported at 100% harvested, including IL, NE, SD, and MN. Most other states that are still in the fields are lagging their normal pace. The national average cash price was at $9.14 on Monday evening, as the national average basis was at -76 cents.

Jan 18 Soybeans are at $9.90 1/4, up 1/4 cent,

Mar 18 Soybeans are at $10.01 1/4, unch ,

May 18 Soybeans are at $10.10 3/4, unch ,

Jul 18 Soybeans are at $10.18 3/4, down 1/2 cent,

Dec 17 Soybean Meal is at $319.60, down $0.20

Dec 17 Soybean Oil is at $34.06, up $0.11

Wheat

Wheat futures are 1-3 cents higher in most KC and CBT contracts, as MPLS is fractionally higher. Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report indicated the winter wheat crop was 88% emerged as of Sunday. Individual state data shows KS at 90% emerged vs. the average of 95%, as OK was also at 90% compared to the average of 92%. Most SRW states are even with or above the average for crop emergence. The crop was rated at 52% gd/ex, down 2% from the previous week. Showers across parts of Australia over the weekend slowed the winter wheat harvest there.

Dec 17 CBOT Wheat is at $4.23 3/4, up 1 3/4 cents,

Dec 17 KCBT Wheat is at $4.18 1/2, up 2 1/2 cents,

Dec 17 MGEX Wheat is at $6.26 1/2, up 1/4 cent

Cattle

Live cattle futures are taking back losses from Monday with gains of $1.20-$1.625 on Turnaround Tuesday. Feeder cattle futures are also showing gains, with nearby Jan $2.075 higher. The CME feeder cattle index on November 17 was down 54 cents to $156.91. Wholesale beef prices were higher on Tuesday morning. Choice was up $1.63 at $207.81, with select boxes 73 cents higher at $188.78. USDA indicated FI cattle slaughter at 120,000 head on Monday, 3,000 larger than a week ago and 3,000 above the same week in 2016. There has been cash trade of $118 reported so far today. Wednesday’s FCE auction will show 955 head for sale. With trade already developing, the online auction will be fairly irrelevant for price discovery.

Dec 17 Cattle are at $118.300, up $1.200,

Feb 18 Cattle are at $124.650, up $1.625,

Apr 18 Cattle are at $125.225, up $1.525,

Jan 18 Feeder Cattle are at $151.625, up $2.075

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle are at $149.800, up $1.750

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle are at $149.750, up $1.900

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures are trading 55 to 95 cents lower at midday. The CME Lean Hog Index for 11/17 was down 59 cents to $64.83. The national base hog average price was 29 cents lower at $56.17 this morning. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 59 cents lower at $81.68 in the Monday morning report. The picnic and belly were the only cuts reported higher. The weekly USDA AMS hog slaughter report showed 465,000 on Monday. That is up 1,000 from the previous week and 11,000 more than the same week in 2016.

Dec 17 Hogs are at $61.300, down $0.725,

Feb 18 Hogs are at $67.525, down $0.950

Apr 18 Hogs are at $71.825, down $0.550

Cotton

Cotton futures are mixed with nearby Dec up 5 points and back months lower at midday. A large unpriced on call position is capturing attention. The afternoon Crop Progress report showed the US cotton harvest picking up during the week ending Sunday, at 74% complete. Data from TX shows 67% of the crop is harvested, improving well over the average of 60%, as GA is 78% complete vs. the average of 74%. Online cash cotton sales reported by The Seam increased to 29,988 bales, with prices improving 156 points to 68.84 cents/lb. The Cotlook A index for November 20 was 25 points higher to 80.05 cents/lb.

Dec 17 Cotton is at 71.42, up 5 points,

Mar 18 Cotton is at 70.67, down 18 points

May 18 Cotton is at 71.48, down 13 points

Jul 18 Cotton is at 71.850, down 12 points


Market Commentary provided by:

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